AmaDemokhrasi Angadlula Ukubandlululwa KweRiphabhulikhi Okhethweni

Ngabe abavoti beRiphabhulikhi banengqondo evaliwe ezinqumweni zabo zokhetho njengoba amaDemocrats ecabanga ukuthi anjalo?

Ephepheni lakamuva, ababhali (uMercier, uCelniker, noShariff, 2020) bachaza izifundo ezintathu ezinamandla ezihlola ukulinganiswa kwamaDemocrats ukuthi amaRepublican azimisele ukuvotela abazongenela abavela ezigabeni ezahlukahlukene zabantu. Lezi zifundo zihlolisise imicabango eminingana ethokozisayo mayelana nezinkolelo zamaDemocrats mayelana nokuchema kweRiphabhulikhi nokuthi izinkolelo mayelana nokuchema okuthile zihlobene kanjani nezinkolelo zamaDemocrats mayelana nokukhethwa kwalabo abathandwayo.

Lokhu akusikho ukubuyekezwa okuphelele kokutholakele kwabo. Kwakunemibono eminingi ethize maqondana nokulinganiswa kweDemokhrasi kwabangenele ukhetho lweDemocratic abavela ezigabeni ezahlukahlukene engingaxoxi ngazo lapha. Isibonelo, ababhali bahlole ukukhethwa okubonakalayo phakathi kwamaDemokhrasi abantu abavela ezigabeni ezithile zabantu kanye nemibono yamaDemokhrasi ngo-Elizabeth Warren, uBernie Sanders noPete Buttigieg. Kulokhu okuthunyelwe, ngiveza okunye okutholakele obekuthakazelisa kakhulu kimi.

Leli phepha lishicilelwe ku-inthanethi ngaphambi kokufakwa encwadini futhi alikaze libuyekezwe ngokusemthethweni kontanga. Njengenjwayelo, ngikhuthaza abafundi ukuthi bafunde yonke i-athikili yangempela bazakhele eyabo imibono yedatha - futhi bahlole imiphumela engingaxoxi ngayo lapha.

Idatha yeSifundo 1 iqoqwe kusuka kusampula eliku-inthanethi labahlanganyeli abangama-728 (76% White, 13% Black, 7% Hispanic, 6% East Asia; 56% owesilisa, 44% wesifazane; isilinganiso seminyaka yobudala 35.75). Ababambiqhaza babuzwa ngokuzimisela kwabo ukuvotela abazongenela ezepolitiki bamaqembu ahlukahlukene kanye nokulinganisa kwabo ukuthi amaDemokhrasi, amaRiphabhulikhi, kanye nabo bonke abantu baseMelika bazophendula kanjani emibuzweni efanayo (esikalini esingu-0-100%). KwakunamaDemokhrasi angama-369, amaRepublican ayi-175, kanye nama-Independent ayi-167 kusampula.

Njengesisekelo sokuqala ukuqhathanisa izilinganiso ezivela kubahlanganyeli, abacwaningi basebenzise idatha kusuka kupolitiki kazwelonke yeGallup ekhombisa ukulinganiselwa kokuzimisela ukuvotela isigaba esithile sabantu. Imininingwane kazwelonke yeGallup yayikade ikhombisile ukuthi amaRephabliki athi azimisele kakhulu ukuvotela la maqembu alandelayo: amaKhatholika (97%), amaBlack (94%), amaJuda (94%), amaSpanishi (92%), abavangeli (92%) , noma owesifazane (90%).

Ngokwesilinganiso, amaDemokhrasi kusampula aqagele kabi izigaba eziningi. Lokhu kufaka phakathi isilinganiso seDemocrat esilinganisela ukuthi amaRiphabhulikhi azokhombisa ukuzimisela ukuvotela umuntu ozongenela ukhetho ongumKatolika (70%), uMnyama (40%), umJuda (45%), iSpanishi (37%), umvangeli (76%), noma owesifazane (43%).

Imininingwane kazwelonke yeGallup phambilini ibikhombisile ukuthi amaRiphabhulikhi kubikwa ukuthi abezimisele kakhulu ukuvotela amaqembu alandelayo: i-socialist (19%), amaSulumane (38%), noma abangakholelwa ebukhoneni bukaNkulunkulu (42%). AmaDemokhrasi alahlekelwe kakhulu yilokho okubili kwalaba abathathu, uma kulinganiswa isilinganiso seDemocrat sokuthi amaRiphabhulikhi azokhombisa ukuzimisela ukuvotela umuntu ozongenela ukhetho ongumSulumane (21%) noma ongakholelwa ebukhoneni bukaNkulunkulu (29%).

Ngakho-ke, amaDemokhrasi aqhakambisa impendulo engeyinhle yamaRiphabhulikhi ezigabeni zamaKatolika, abaNnyama, amaJuda, amaSpanishi, amaVangeli, nabesifazane, ngokuhlola okungalungile ikakhulukazi kokuchema kweRiphabhulikhi ngokumelene neHispanics. Lokho kungumbono ongaqondakali wamaRiphabhulikhi unikezwe ukuthi abazobhapathizwa baseSpain uMarco Rubio noTed Cruz babengabaphikisi abaphambili ku-2016 GOP president primary.

AmaDemokhrasi abuye futhi akhipha isinqumo sokwenqatshwa kweRepublican komuntu ozongenela ukhetho ongumSulumane noma ongakholelwa ebukhoneni bukaNkulunkulu. Ngokwengeziwe, amaDemokhrasi aqhakambise ukuthi mangaki amaRephabliki angavuma ukuvotela umuntu ozongenela ukhetho oneminyaka engaphezu kwengama-70 noma usonhlalakahle. Njengoba kubhekwe ukuthi abathathu ababambe iqhaza eliphakeme lokuphakanyiswa kwamaDemocrat kanye namaRiphabhulikhi baneminyaka engaphezu kwengama-70 ubudala (uBiden, uSanders, uTrump), njengososayensi wezenhlalo, uSanders angaba nokulahlekelwa kakhulu ngokuya ngokhetho lukazwelonke. Imininingwane eyengeziwe eSifundweni 1 ikhombisile ukuthi amaRiphabhulikhi ayenembe kakhudlwana ekubikezeleni ukuzimisela kwamaDemokhrasi ukuvotela abazongenela ukhetho kunokuba izibikezelo zeDemocrat zingezeqembu labo. Lokhu kungabangelwa ukuthi amaRephabliki asondele kakhulu ekuqhekekeni kwamanje eDemocratic Party kunokuba amaDemocrats enza izilinganiso zawo.

Idatha yeSifundo 2 yaqoqwa ngoJanuwari 2020 kusuka kusampula eliku-inthanethi labahlanganyeli abangama-597. Kuhlolisiswe kuphela amaDemokhrasi futhi kwangezwa imibuzo mayelana nokuthi umuntu obambe iqhaza angaxhumana kangakanani namaRiphabhuliki. Kimi, okutholakala okuthakazelisa kakhulu eSifundweni 2 ukuthi ukuxhumana okuvamile ababambiqhaza bamaDemocrat ababenakho namaRiphabhuliki, ukulinganisela kwabo okunembe kakhudlwana ngokuzimisela kwamaRephabliki ukuvotela umuntu ozobandela inani elithile labantu. Lo mphumela ubonakala ugcizelela isidingo sokuphuma emakamelweni ethu e-echo futhi sikhulume sodwa.

Idatha yeSifundo 3 yaqoqwa ngoFebhuwari 2020 kusuka kusampula eliku-inthanethi labahlanganyeli abangama-930. Sasifana neSifundo 2, ngaphandle kokuthi sasinokukhwabanisa kokuhlola: Ababambiqhaza babenikezwa imininingwane yesilinganiso samaphesenti weqiniso wabantu baseMelika abazimisele ukuvotela umuntu ozongenela iqembu elithile labantu noma benganikwanga lolo lwazi. Ukunikezwa ngemininingwane yezinga lesisekelo kuholele kumaDemokhrasi alinganisela ukukhethwa okuphezulu komuntu ozobhapathizwa ongakholelwa ebukhoneni bukaNkulunkulu, oMnyama, owesifazane, isitabane, iSpanishi, umJuda, noma umSulumane, kanye nokukhethwa okuphansi kwalowo ozobhapathizwa ongumKatolika, umvangeli, umKristu, usoshiyali, noma engaphezu kweminyaka engama-70 ubudala.

Iziphetho

Ababhali bocwaningo olubukeziwe benze izifundo ezintathu ezibonisa ukuthi amaDemokhrasi awabona kanjani amaRephabliki futhi anikeza ukuqonda ukuthi ukukhethwa, izimo zengqondo ngamaqembu, kanye nesimo sengqondo sabanye maqondana namaqembu kungakuthinta kanjani ukwesekwa komuntu okhethweni oluthile. Kuyafaneleka ukuthi osomaqhinga bezepolitiki basebenzise le sayensi yezengqondo ukuthola amasu abo. Okubaluleke kakhulu, kunikeza abacwaningi abayisisekelo kwisayensi yezengqondo ukuqonda ukuthi izimo zengqondo zithinta kanjani isimo samanje sezepolitiki.